17 The overall performance of the logistics sector is excellent. In the first three quarters, the overall income of the logistics sector rose 59.75%, the overall profit rose 28.67%, of which the contribution of income mainly from the express, a large supply chain two plate; 1, the Courier industry in the first three quarterly industry growth of the National Courier Service Business volume completed 27.39 billion, year-on-year growth of 29.8%; Total business income completed 342.5 billion yuan, an increase of 26.7% per cent, the company level, Shun Fung, Yuantong, Yun Tatsu, Shentong net profit growth of 10.8%, 8.43%, 38.38%, 24.09%; 2, the first three quarters of the bulk supply chain company volume price rise, which represents the enterprise like Yu shares (600057) revenue growth of 82.17%, profit growth of 31.89%, Rimautong (600180) revenue growth 85.83%, profit growth 20.44%.

Market style factors led to a decline in overall stock prices. Outstanding performance is not reflected in the share price, as of December 7, the overall logistics index fell 12.08%, the highest decline in stocks reached 53.15%. We believe that the logistics sector stock market performance is not good reasons for the following two points: 1, 17 market style more concerned about consumption and leading companies, logistics stocks, although many for the industry leader or high-quality enterprises, but in addition to express industry concentration higher, other segments are in a relatively decentralized state, do not have very strong market forces; 2, 17 market more attention to the occurrence of inflection point of the industry, and logistics enterprises because of their own large and scattered, the company is still in happy enclosure State, has not formed a relatively clear trade inflection point.

Policy, growth, valuation three-dimensional recommendation of the logistics sector. Policy, the 19 President Xi first mentioned the modern supply chain, logistics networking, industry integration has given policy guidance, we judge the future relevant specific policies will gradually fall, in investment and financing to help the entire logistics sector bigger and stronger, to scale and innovation to reduce logistics costs; growth, We judge the next 3 years Express industry will maintain about 25% high growth, the bulk supply chain still benefits from the overall high boom, supply chain management enterprises will gradually contribute to profits; valuation, after 17 years of decline, the overall value of the logistics industry in 18 around 24 times times, some high-quality high growth companies PE in 15 times times or so, Investment value.

Recommended 18 Logistics Gold Stock Portfolio:

Yuantong Express (600233): 18 PE is 27 times times, performance 18 will return to high growth, layout and b net, or from the business model breakout.

Yun Tatsu shares (002120): 18 pe 23 times times, focus on cost control and service quality, 18 to maintain more than 30% growth.

Yee Yatong (002183): 18 PE is 18 times times, financing landing will become its core catalytic, new retail layout and brand marketing to enhance the overall gross margin level.

Plouton (002769): 18 PE is 20 times times, 18 millet maintain high growth, Hai Kang Wei View (002415) and other new customers will gradually contribute to the performance.

Rimautong: 18 PE is 13 times times, the coal supply chain benefit cycle is high, the factoring business expands rapidly, other commodity team will gradually contribute profits.

Build shares (600153): 18 PE is 8 times times, 18 in addition to the supply chain growth of 20%, the real estate will usher in settlement of the year, the first level of land development constitutes a catalyst.

Xiangyu shares: 18 PE is 15 times times, performance elasticity from the cycle of high prosperity, food prices and railway logistics landed contribution profit increment.